时事评论:巴基斯坦2022年经济展望

  • 時間:   2022-01-21      
  • 作者:   巴铁泽米尔      
  • 來源:   澳门法治报     
  • 瀏覽人數:  3454

《亚洲发展展望》表示,巴基斯坦经济有望在2022财年继续复苏,这得益于更强劲的私人投资、改善的商业活动、稳步推出疫苗和2022财年的经济刺激措施。



2019年新冠肺炎疫情以来,全球经济遭受重创。巴基斯坦也不例外。封锁破坏了巴基斯坦的生产力,社会距离在很大程度上减少了经济活动。



然而,与世界其他地区相比,新冠肺炎对巴基斯坦的影响要小得多。巴基斯坦的正确战略可能是选择智能封锁,而不是完全封锁。另一个原因可能是巴基斯坦丰富的基因库导致了内部免疫力的提高。



然而,好的作物和正确的政策对经济做出了积极的贡献。但是,外债、通货膨胀、普通商品价格上涨等不断增加。它损害了普通人的生活。国内生产总值(GDP)增长、创造就业机会、汇率是国民经济的主要障碍。



他说:“巴基斯坦与中亚国家、俄罗斯、阿富汗、伊朗和土耳其的贸易将得到改善,这将对巴基斯坦经济产生积极影响。进入新市场将有助于巴基斯坦克服其外汇储备和对借款的依赖。”



世界银行在其 2021 年 10 月的《巴基斯坦发展更新:恢复出口》中报告称,该国的实际 GDP 增长在 2020 财年因全球大流行而收缩 0.5% 后,在 2021 财年反弹至 3.5%。此外,通货膨胀有所缓解,财政赤字占 GDP 的比重提高到 7.3%,经常账户赤字占 GDP 的比重缩小到 0.6%,为十年来的最低水平。



“凭借有效的小额封锁、创纪录的汇款流入和支持性货币政策,巴基斯坦的经济增长在 2021 财年反弹,”世界银行巴基斯坦国家局局长 Najy Benhassine 说。 “这些措施,连同扩大 Ehsaas 计划和对企业的支持,是加强经济和从与 COVID-19 相关的经济影响中复苏的关键。”



《巴基斯坦发展动态》是世界银行每年两次报告《南亚经济焦点》的配套文章,该报告审视了该地区的经济发展和前景,并分析了各国面临的政策挑战。



“凭借有效的小额封锁、创纪录的汇款流入和支持性货币政策,巴基斯坦的经济增长在 2021 财年反弹,”世界银行巴基斯坦国家局局长 Najy Benhassine 说。



2021 年秋季版题为 Shifting Gears:数字化和服务主导的发展,表明随着全球需求反弹和有针对性的遏制措施有助于最大限度地减少最近一波 COVID-19 的经济影响,南亚的复苏仍在继续。但复苏仍然脆弱且不平衡,大多数国家仍远未达到大流行前的趋势水平。



亚洲开发银行令人鼓舞的言论——巴基斯坦的经济增长在 2021 财年(截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日)反弹至 3.9%,随着商业活动在冠状病毒病的第二年逐渐恢复,预计在 2022 财年将达到 4.0% (COVID-19)大流行,亚洲开发银行(亚行)今天在一份报告中说。



根据亚行年度旗舰经济出版物《2021 年亚洲发展展望》(ADO)更新,预计巴基斯坦经济将在 2022 财年继续复苏,这将得到私人投资增加、商业活动改善、疫苗稳步推出和 2022 财年经济刺激措施的支持。然而,重大的不确定性笼罩着整个巴基斯坦和全球大流行的经济前景。



“在工业和服务业强劲增长的支持下,巴基斯坦经济正走上复苏之路,”亚行巴基斯坦国家局局长叶勇说。 “继续推出 COVID-19 疫苗接种计划、结构改革和扩大社会保护计划都是确保包容性和可持续增长的关键。提高出口竞争力、提振制造业表现和增加私人投资的财政激励措施和政策将继续在加强经济前景方面发挥重要作用。”



基于2021年的经济状况,我们看好2022年经济可能会有所好转,但预计不会有大的跳跃。巴基斯坦的农业部门可能会变得更有生产力,并将做出更多贡献。出口可能会增加,因为一些非传统市场已被添加到巴基斯坦的出口市场名单中。中国将从巴基斯坦进口更多。



“在工业和服务业强劲增长的支持下,巴基斯坦经济正走上复苏之路,”亚行巴基斯坦国家主任叶勇表示。



事实上,中国政府制定了更多从巴基斯坦进口的友好政策,以支持巴基斯坦,缩小贸易逆差。中国将通过中巴经济走廊项目为巴基斯坦经济发展作出更大贡献。预计有几个项目将在 2022 年完成。一些新项目将在 2022 年启动。CPEC 将为已经陷入困境的巴基斯坦经济提供氧气。



中国在经济起飞中的作用将取决于我们如何与中国打交道以及我们如何与中国打交道。中方全力支持帮助巴经济腾飞。但是,中国的角色只是一个催化剂。如果我们不努力,只期望中国会提供帮助,我们可能会生活在傻瓜的天堂。先决条件是我们自己打算改善我们的经济。我们的战略规划和一贯的努力将使我们成为中国援助的受益者。



巴基斯坦与中亚国家、俄罗斯、阿富汗、伊朗和土耳其的贸易将改善,对巴基斯坦经济产生积极影响。进入新市场将有助于巴基斯坦克服其外汇储备和对借款的依赖。



预计对阿富汗的国际援助和援助可能为巴基斯坦加强经济活动提供更多机会。阿富汗是一个内陆国家,国际贸易依赖巴基斯坦,这对巴基斯坦来说可能是一个额外的机会。



“预计对阿富汗的国际援助和援助可能为巴基斯坦加强经济活动提供更多机会。阿富汗是一个内陆国家,国际贸易依赖巴基斯坦,这对巴基斯坦来说可能是一个额外的机会。”



然而,巴基斯坦可能会面临来自美国及其盟国的更多制裁和限制。欧盟也可能会陷入困境,对巴基斯坦经济产生不利影响。国际货币基金组织可能在巴基斯坦经济的改善或崩溃方面发挥关键作用。如果我们讨价还价和谈判得当,国际货币基金组织可能会发挥积极作用。如果我们不能说服国际货币基金组织并执行他们的条款和条件,它可能会损害巴基斯坦的经济。



尽管巴基斯坦拥有经济起飞的全部潜力,但它需要改革和正确的政策。政局稳定,治安形势有所改善。不幸的是,当我们临近选举时,反对党通常会加强对执政党的攻击,破坏该国的政治稳定。



这都是基于之前的经验,这次也一样。政府可能只专注于对抗反对派,将大部分精力和时间只花在政治方面,而在经济方面则较少时间和优先事项,这可能对我们的经济不利。



不幸的是,巴基斯坦面临着内部和外部的压力。我们的经济取决于许多因素,其中一些是我们无法控制的。很难确切地说出巴基斯坦 2022 年的经济情况,但作为一个乐观的人,我相信我们人民的正确政策和辛勤工作将取得丰硕成果。国际专家对巴基斯坦经济状况持积极态度,我们相信这将成为现实。



翻译整理:那娜

责任编辑:陈龙狮



附件:本报时事评论员巴铁泽米尔简介

微信图片_20210710134336.jpg

Zamir Awan,泽米尔阿万,笔名:巴铁泽米尔。



现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。



泽米尔生于1962年3月1日,80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位,机械专业。



从2010年,在巴基斯坦驻华大使馆,担任参赞,负责中巴两国之间科技交流与发展科技合作。中巴两国政治关系非常密切,通称“铁哥们儿全天候战略合作伙伴”的关系。科技算战略地位,所以两国也重视科技交流与合作。



泽米尔阿万,利用他在中国学习时学过的知识(包括农业、林业、生物学、健康业、工业、水电、能源、高等教育等等)加强了合作关系。签订了不少合同与协议,推动了不少项目。



他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作,特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。在他的任期中,在两国关系发展壮大。



从2020年起成为《澳门法治报》时事评论员。



Pakistan’s Economic Outlook in 2022



Asian Development Outlook says Pakistan’s economy is expected to continue recovering in FY2022, supported by stronger private investment, improving business activity, a steady vaccine rollout and economic stimulus measures for FY2022.



Since the outbreak of COVID-19, in 2019, the global economy suffered heavily. Pakistan was also not any exception. Lockdown damaged the productivity of Pakistan, social distances have reduced the economic activities to a large extent.



However, as compared to the rest of the world, COVID’s impact on Pakistan was much less. It might be the right strategy of Pakistan to opt for smart lockdown, instead of complete lockdown. Another reason might be rich gene pool of Pakistan has resulted in improved internal immunity.



However, good crops and the right policies were contributing to the economy positively. But, external debt, inflation, price-hike of common commodities, etc. were on increase uninterruptedly. It harms the common man’s life. GDP growth, job creation, and exchange rate were the major setback to the national economy.



“Pakistan’s trade with Central Asian states, Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey will improve having a positive impact on the Pakistani economy. Access to new markets will help Pakistan to overcome its foreign exchange reserves and dependency on borrowed money.“



The World Bank reported in its October 2021 Pakistan Development Update: Reviving Exports shows that the country’s real GDP growth rebounded to 3.5 percent in FY2021, after contracting by 0.5 percent in FY2020 with the onset of the global pandemic. In addition, inflation eased, the fiscal deficit improved to 7.3 percent of GDP, and the current account deficit shrunk to 0.6 percent of GDP – the lowest in a decade.



“With effective micro-lockdowns, record-high remittance inflows, and a supportive monetary policy, Pakistan’s economic growth rebounded in FY2021,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan. “These measures, together with the expansion of the Ehsaas program and support to businesses, were key to strengthening the economy and recovering from the economic fallout associated with COVID-19.”



The Pakistan Development Update is a companion piece to the South Asia Economic Focus, a twice-a-year World Bank report that examines economic developments and prospects in the region and analyzes policy challenges faced by countries.



“With effective micro-lockdowns, record-high remittance inflows, and a supportive monetary policy, Pakistan’s economic growth rebounded in FY2021,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.”



The fall 2021 edition titled Shifting Gears: Digitization and Services-Led Development, showed that South Asia’s recovery continues as global demand rebounded and targeted containment measures helped minimize the economic impacts of the recent waves of COVID-19. But the recovery remains fragile and uneven, and most countries remain far from pre-pandemic trend levels.



Encouraging remarks by the Asian Developments Bank – Pakistan’s economic growth rebounded to 3.9% in fiscal year (FY) 2021 (ending 30 June 2021) and is expected to reach 4.0% in FY2022 as business activity gradually resumes in the second year of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report today.



According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 Update, ADB’s annual flagship economic publication, Pakistan’s economy is expected to continue recovering in FY2022, supported by stronger private investment, improving business activity, a steady vaccine rollout, and economic stimulus measures for FY2022. Yet, significant uncertainty clouds the economic outlook throughout the pandemic in Pakistan and worldwide.



“Pakistan’s economy is on the path to recovery, supported by promising growth in the industry and services sectors,” said ADB Country Director for Pakistan Yong Ye. “The continued rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination program, structural reforms, and the expansion of social protection programs are all key to ensuring inclusive and sustainable growth. Fiscal incentives and policies to boost export competitiveness, bolster the performance of the manufacturing sector, and augment private investment will continue to play an instrumental role in strengthening the economic outlook.”  



Based on the state of the economy in 2021, we are optimistic that in the year 2022, the economy may improve a bit, but, a big jump is not expected. Pakistan’s agriculture sector may become more productive and will contribute more. Exports may enhance, as some of the non-traditional markets have been added to the list of Pakistan’s export market. China will import more from Pakistan.



“Pakistan’s economy is on the path to recovery, supported by promising growth in the industry and services sectors, said ADB Country Director for Pakistan Yong Ye.“



In fact, the Chinese government has formulated a friendly policy to import more from Pakistan, in a bid to support Pakistan and narrow down the trade gap. China will contribute more toward the economic development of Pakistan through its CPEC projects. Several projects are expected to be completed in 2022. Some new will be initiated in 2022. CPEC will be Oxygen to ailing Pakistani economy on the ventilator already.



China’s role in economic take-off will depend, how we engage China and how we deal with China. There is full support from the Chinese side to assist Pakistan in economic take-off. But, the Chinese role is only as a catalyst. If we do not work hard, and only expect, China will help, we might be living a fool’s paradise. The pre-requisite is our own intention to improve our economy. Our strategic planning and consistent hard work will enable us to be beneficiaries of Chinese assistance.   



Pakistan’s trade with Central Asian states, Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey will improve having a positive impact on the Pakistani economy. Access to new markets will help Pakistan to overcome its foreign exchange reserves and dependency on borrowed money.



It is expected that international aid and assistance to Afghanistan may open more opportunities for Pakistan to enhance economic activities. Afghanistan is a land lock country and depends on Pakistan for international trade, which might be an additional opportunity for Pakistan.



“It is expected that international aid and assistance to Afghanistan may open more opportunities for Pakistan to enhance economic activities. Afghanistan is a land lock country and depends on Pakistan for international trade, which might be an additional opportunity for Pakistan.“



However, Pakistan might face more sanctions and restrictions from the US and its allies. EU may also give a tough time, adversely impacting Pakistan’s economy. IMF may play a pivotal role for improve or collapse of Pakistan’s economy. If we bargain and negotiate well, IMF may be useful positively. If we fail to convince IMF and implement their terms and conditions, it might hurt Pakistan’s economy.



Although Pakistan possesses the full potential to take off economically, it requires reforms and the right policies. The political stability and improved law and order situation. Unfortunately, as we approach near elections, the opposition’s parties, usually intensify their attacks on the ruling party and spoil the political stability in the country.



This is all based on previous experience, and the same is expected this time too. The Government may focus only to counter opposition and spent its most of energy and time only on the political front, leaving less time and less priority on the economic front, which might be negative for our economy.



Unfortunately, Pakistan is facing internal as well as external pressures. Our economy is dependent on many factors, some of which are beyond our control. It is really, difficult to say something about Pakistan’s economy in 2022, in definite terms but, being an optimistic person, I am certain that right policies and hard work of our people will be fruitful. International experts are of positive opinion regarding the status of Pakistan’s economy and we believe that it will turn true. 



The writer is sinologist (ex-diplomat), editor, analyst, non-resident fellow of Center for China and Globalization, NUST, Islamabad, Pakistan. He can be reached at awanzamir@yahoo.com

责任编辑:cls
关键字:時政、要聞、國際